Sample revenue plan · Table Rock Lake, Missouri
How much can a 7-bedroom lodge on Table Rock Lake earn?
Published November 2026
A revenue plan for 2027 and 2028 for a seven-bedroom lake lodge on Table Rock Lake, near Branson, Missouri. It covers the lodge's last 12 months, a scan of 389 large lodges around Branson and Table Rock Lake, AirDNA's numbers and where they fall short, amenity value, a listing audit, PriceLabs settings and a launch plan for the first ten weeks.
Published November 2026 by the Lodging Gurus revenue team. Market data read in November 2026. To protect the owner's privacy, we changed identifying details and scaled the dollar figures for the example lodge, its neighbors and its comparables by the same factor. Market-wide AirDNA statistics, amenity effects and the method are unchanged. Nearby lodges are shown as Comparable A to E. Figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee of results.
Summary
The lodge earned $90.9K in the 12 months to August 2026. We forecast $121K for 2027 and $149K for 2028. The owner's $140K to $150K target is within reach in 2027 in our stretch case, which needs a fast launch and early group bookings. In 2028 it is our base case.
Last 12 months, forecasts and a comparable lodge nearby
Show the dataHide the data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Last 12 months (to Aug 2026) | $90.9K |
| 2027 base case | $121.2K |
| 2027 stretch case | $140K |
| 2028 plan | $148.9K |
| Comparable A 2025 | $159.0K |
Owner's target: $140K to $150K
Key findings
- The house can earn more. Comparable A, a seven-bedroom lodge nearby, grossed $164.8K from November 2025 to October 2026 on its owner's books. Comparable B, a sauna lodge nearby, reportedly makes $140K to $150K.
- The lodge is priced below the lodges it competes with. Its Airbnb prices run 7% to 24% under its 14 nearest neighbors. Its July 2027 nightly rate on AirDNA is $1,320, against $1,573 to $2,030 at the sauna and theater lodges.
- Summer 2027 is still open. Seven-bedroom lodges with open calendars have about 15% of next summer booked, and about 90% of the lodge's summer 2026 revenue was booked after December 15.
- AirDNA's $96.9K average is not the ceiling. It averages every seven-bedroom listing in the local submarket, new and part-year ones included, and it reads all four nearby comparables we could check below their owners' figures.
- Reviews start at zero. The plan assumes the lodge launches on new listings, as happens when a lodge changes hands or managers, so its existing reviews stay behind. That is the main reason our 2027 base case stops at $121K.
How did the lodge perform in the last 12 months?
The lodge booked 140 nights and $90.9K from September 2025 to August 2026. Comparable A earned $162.8K over the same months, and most of the gap sits in summer.
Monthly revenue, September 2025 to August 2026
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| Month | This lodge | Comparable A (nearby) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep | $600 | $6,800 |
| Oct | $6,700 | $10,100 |
| Nov | $8,300 | $11,800 |
| Dec | $12,900 | $10,500 |
| Jan | $2,400 | $1,600 |
| Feb | $0 | $7,500 |
| Mar | $4,000 | $7,800 |
| Apr | $2,300 | $9,400 |
| May | $2,500 | $10,600 |
| Jun | $19,500 | $35,000 |
| Jul | $23,700 | $36,400 |
| Aug | $8,000 | $15,300 |
| 12 months | $90.9K | $162.8K |
Jun to Aug gap: $35.5K. Monthly values are rounded to the nearest $100. Season and year totals match the tables on the page.
- of the year booked (140 nights)
- 38%
- earned per booked night, cleaning and fees included
- $650
- average whole-house booking, about 3.8 nights
- $3,180
- of the year's revenue came from June to August 2026
- 56%
When does summer get booked?
Share of each summer's revenue already booked by each date (rounded)
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| Date | Summer 2025 | Summer 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | 30% | 0% |
| Dec 15 | 70% | 10% |
| Jan 15 | 70% | 40% |
| Feb 15 | 80% | 60% |
| Apr 1 | 80% | 75% |
Target: listings live by Dec 15
What the history tells us
- Groups book early. More than half of whole-house revenue was booked more than 90 days out, and the median lead time was about two months.
- Summer 2025 was about 70% booked by mid-December. Summer 2026 was only about 10% booked by then, then filled from January to March.
- Airbnb's fee in the booking file went from about 3% of each booking in 2025 to about 15% in 2026.
- In 2026, whole-house stays averaged about $515 a night on Airbnb, $697 on Vrbo and $928 on direct bookings.
How does the lodge price against nearby lodges?
In November 2026 we pulled every Airbnb lodge with 6 to 10 bedrooms around Branson and Table Rock Lake: 389 lodges, their amenities, reviews, prices for six date windows and 12 months of calendars. Fourteen of them are 7 to 8 bedroom lodges close to this one.
Show the dataHide the data
| Season | This lodge today | Neighbor median |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | $405 | $494 |
| Apr | $560 | $603 |
| Jun | $1,259 | $1,659 |
| Jul | $1,334 | $1,684 |
| Oct | $766 | $953 |
| Dec | $589 | $747 |
| Stay | This lodge | Neighbors | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 to 17 | $405 | $494 | -18% |
| Apr 15 to 18 | $560 | $603 | -7% |
| Jun 17 to 20 | $1,259 | $1,659* | -24% |
| Jul 8 to 11 | $1,334 | $1,684* | -21% |
| Oct 14 to 17 | $766 | $953 | -20% |
| Dec 10 to 13 | $589 | $747 | -21% |
Airbnb's displayed total divided by nights, cleaning included, before tax. Neighbor figure is the median of lodges open on those dates. The lodge needs 4 nights in June and July, so its price there is for 4. *Only 2 to 3 neighbors still had those summer dates open.
How booked is the market already?
| Share of nights already taken | 14 nearby lodges | All 389 lodges | This lodge |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 2026 | 44% | 42% | 45% |
| Next 90 days (Nov 5 to Feb 2) | 31% | 33% | 32% |
| Summer 2027 (Jun to Aug), already | 13% | 19% | 0% |
What this tells us. December demand at the lodge matches its neighbors, so the house itself draws guests. Large lodges across the lake already have 19% of next summer taken, in line with how early this lodge's own groups booked. The lodge has no 2027 nights booked, so the calendar is open to fill from launch. AirDNA's forward calendars show the same picture. Calendars can't separate bookings from owner blocks, so read these as close estimates.
Is AirDNA accurate for large lodges near Branson?
AirDNA's headline for seven-bedroom lodges in the local submarket is $96.9K a year. It averages every seven-bedroom listing it tracks, new and part-year ones included, and it reads most of the nearby lodges we could check below their owners' figures.
AirDNA against owners' figures
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| Lodge | AirDNA estimate | Owner's books or reported figure |
|---|---|---|
| This lodge | $95K | $100K |
| Comparable A | $58K | $165K |
| Comparable B (sauna) | $129K | $140K to $150K |
| Comparable D | $90K | $103K to $107K |
| Comparable E (game room) | $81K | $98K to $103K |
How the $96.9K is built
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Seven-bedroom listings AirDNA tracks in the submarket | 41 |
| Median revenue per listing | $77.1K |
| Listed under 250 nights (14 lodges), average | $52.9K |
| Fewer than 15 reviews (16 lodges), average | $63.6K |
| Lodges at $100K or more | 9 |
| Top five, average | $122.5K |
AirDNA adds up each month's average across the lodges active that month. New lodges and part-year listings pull it down, so it describes the typical lodge rather than a well-run one.
Five years of seven-bedroom lodges
| Year to October | Per lodge | Occupancy | Lodges |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $92.4K | 55% | 17 |
| 2023 | $73.2K | 43% | 30 |
| 2024 | $83.8K | 36% | 33 |
| 2025 | $89.2K | 41% | 35 |
| 2026 | $96.9K | 42% | 36 |
Supply nearly doubled in 2023 and revenue per lodge fell 21%. Since then supply has grown about 3% a year while revenue per lodge rose 14%, 6% and 9%.
What AirDNA's forward calendars show
| Lodge | Summer 2027 booked | July nightly |
|---|---|---|
| This lodge | 0% | $1,320 |
| Comparable B (sauna) | 11% | $1,864 |
| Comparable C (sauna and theater room) | 0% | $1,756 |
| Comparable A | 12% | $2,030 |
| All 26 open lodges | 15% average | $1,249 median |
Read in November 2026.
Why AirDNA reads these lodges low. AirDNA estimates bookings from public calendars, so it misses direct bookings and often can't tell a booked Vrbo night from a blocked one. Comparable A sells mostly outside Airbnb, and AirDNA puts it at about $58K against about $165K on its owner's books. We use AirDNA as a cross-check and set targets from owners' books and our own scan.
Which amenities add the most revenue: hot tub, theater room or sauna?
We tested each amenity two ways. Our own model uses 990 priced stays from our Airbnb scan. The second uses AirDNA's booked nightly rates and revenue for 495 lodges with 6 to 10 bedrooms across the Ozarks market, controlling for size, reviews, rating, area and channels. The hot tub and theater room hold up in both. The sauna does not.
Effect on nightly rate
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| Amenity | Our Airbnb scan (95% range) | AirDNA booked rates (95% range) |
|---|---|---|
| Hot tub | +10.1% (+6.0% to +14.4%) | +16.0% (+10.4% to +22.0%) |
| Theater room | +10.6% (+6.4% to +15.0%) | +9.8% (+4.0% to +16.0%) |
| Sauna | +9.7% (+3.7% to +16.1%) | +3.4% (-5.4% to +13.0%) |
| Lake view | +8.9% (+5.6% to +12.3%) | +4.2% (0.0% to +8.6%) |
| Pets allowed | -5.3% (-8.2% to -2.4%) | +1.0% (-3.4% to +5.6%) |
Point values are from the original table. 95% ranges were read from the original chart to one decimal.
| Amenity | Our scan, price | AirDNA, rate | AirDNA, revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot tub | +10.1% | +16.0% | +22.5% |
| Theater room | +10.6% | +9.8% | +10.8% |
| Sauna | +9.7% | +3.4%* | +4.3%* |
| Lake view | +8.9% | +4.2%* | +1.4%* |
| Pets allowed | -5.3% | +1.0%* | -0.7%* |
| EV charger | -7.3% | -7.8% | -1.8%* |
*Not statistically clear: the 95% range includes zero. On AirDNA, 72% of these lodges have a hot tub, 17% a theater room and 6% a sauna. AirDNA's occupancy showed no clear lift for any amenity, so we value each one on price and revenue.
What that means for this lodge
| Amenity | Yearly value | Our recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| Hot tub (already there) | about $14K to $30K | The strongest amenity in both models. Keep it spotless, list it as a private hot tub and put it in photo 2. A hot tub that's down in July costs more than any repair. |
| Theater room | about $14K | First pick. Both models agree on about 10%. At a $15K build it pays for itself in about a year. |
| Sauna | about $6K, possibly nothing | Lower priority. Saunas are listed at higher prices, but AirDNA's booked rates show no clear premium. Add one only if it's cheap and HOA rules allow it. |
| Pets and EV charger | none found | Skip. Neither model shows an upside. |
How to read the dollars. Each value applies the revenue effect to the about $135K the lodge would earn in 2028 before new amenities. For the hot tub, the range runs from our scan's price effect to AirDNA's revenue effect. The 2028 plan counts about $14K for the theater room and nothing for the sauna. One more finding from our scan: lodges show about 1.5% higher prices for every 10 extra photos.
What would we change on the listing?
We went through the lodge's Airbnb listing line by line against its 14 neighbors. Strong guest ratings show guests like the house. The listing itself undersells it. These are the changes we would make when we rebuild it in the owner's account.
| Area | Today | What we would do | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Photos | Fewer photos than most neighbors, several with default captions and a cover that doesn't show the lodge's best feature. | 90+ photos in story order: the view or hot tub first, then group dining, game spaces, bedrooms and the outdoor areas. A caption on every photo that says what the guest gets. | Neighbors show a median of 105 photos. |
| Title | A list of amenities most lodges here also have. | Lead with what wins group searches: the view, one standout amenity and the bedroom setup, in under 50 characters. Add the theater room once it's in. | The top earners nearby lead with one standout amenity, such as a sauna or a theater room. |
| Price | 7% to 24% below neighbors and below our model in 5 of 6 seasons. | Re-base in PriceLabs against the 14 nearby lodges. | Underpricing loses money without filling more nights. |
| Minimum stay | 4 nights in peak summer. | 3 nights in peak and 2 in shoulder, with a minimum booking value so short stays still pay for the turnover. | The four top-rated sauna and theater lodges nearby take 2-night summer stays. |
| Amenities | Several things the house has are missing from the amenity list, and the hot tub isn't marked as private. | Our 14-point amenity audit against the house, so the lodge appears in every filter it qualifies for. | 10 of 14 neighbors list a private hot tub. |
| Description | A room-by-room list that opens with features. | Open with who it's for (family reunions, church groups, ballpark teams) and drive times to the water and Silver Dollar City. State the guest limit on the permit. | Group organizers book on fit, not feature lists. |
| Reviews | Existing reviews stay with the old listings. | Close attention on the first 15 stays and a review follow-up after every checkout. | Neighbors have a median of about 37 reviews. |
| Channels | 2026 whole-house revenue: about 45% Airbnb, 35% Vrbo, 15% direct site, 5% other direct. | Airbnb, Vrbo and the owner's own direct site from day one, with Vrbo treated as a lead channel for groups. Repeat groups book direct. | Vrbo paid about $697 a night in 2026 against $515 on Airbnb, and Comparable A sells mostly through Vrbo. |
How do Airbnb search and conversion turn into bookings?
A May 2026 study of 24,000+ active US Airbnb listings by Uplisting and IntelliHost found the median listing books one stay for every 47 times it shows on the first page of search. Every booking passes four checkpoints, and listing optimization moves each one.
Page one.
The guest sees the lodge on the first page of results.
About 47% click.
About 53% of guests who see a first-page listing never click.
About 4% book.
About 96% of those who click never book.
About 2.1% overall.
One booking for every 47 first-page impressions at the median.
What it means for this lodge. Our 2027 base case needs about 42 stays. If half come through Airbnb, that's about 21 Airbnb bookings. At the median rate, every extra 100 first-page impressions brings about 2 bookings, worth about $6,400 at the lodge's average booking of about $3,180. Doubling the conversion rate doubles that without a single extra search.
| Checkpoint | What we change | What we track |
|---|---|---|
| Show up on page one | Price inside the neighbors' band, every amenity filter filled, accurate guest count, Instant Book on, replies inside 10 minutes and fast early reviews. | First-page impression rate |
| Win the click | Cover photo, a title under 50 characters that sells one reason to book and a competitive total price. We test cover photos month to month. | Search-to-listing rate against the 47% median |
| Win the booking | Photo order that tells the group story, beds and baths per room, clear house rules, a fair cleaning fee and quick answers to group questions. | Listing-to-booking rate against the 4% median |
| Keep the guest | Close attention through the stay, a review follow-up and a direct-booking offer for next year. | Rating, review count and repeat bookings |
The owner keeps the listing, so these numbers show up in Airbnb's own conversion dashboard. Our target is to beat the median on each one by month three.
See our results on other portfolios: 20-listing listing optimization case study · Las Vegas revenue management case study · Hocking Hills listing optimization case study
What PriceLabs settings fit a large group lodge?
We would run the lodge in PriceLabs against a comp set of its nearby neighbors and review these settings every week. Feature names are PriceLabs' own.
| Setting | What we would set | Why it fits this lodge |
|---|---|---|
| Market Dashboard comp set | The 14 seven- and eight-bedroom lodges nearby, with their future prices and occupancy tracked weekly. | Keeps the lodge inside the band guests are shopping. |
| Custom Seasonal Prices | Separate minimum, base and maximum prices for peak (Jun 5 to Aug 1), the spring and fall festivals, Christmas and winter. | Rates move with Silver Dollar City's calendar. |
| Far Out Prices | Hold peak and Christmas dates high from 60+ days out, up to the 20% cap. | More than half of whole-house revenue was booked 90+ days ahead by large groups. |
| Last-Minute Prices | A gradual discount inside 14 days on shoulder weekdays only. None on peak weekends. | Fills gaps without teaching guests to wait. |
| Orphan Day Prices with Minimum Stay for Orphan Bookings | 1 to 2 night gaps priced lower and bookable at the length of the gap. | Turns Sunday and Monday gaps between groups into revenue. |
| Booking Value minimum stay | A minimum value per booking in peak (for example $2,000) in place of a fixed night count. | Short, high-value stays get in. Small ones don't eat a turnover. |
| Minimum Stay for Adjacent Bookings | Shorter stays allowed when they touch an existing booking. | No dead nights between groups. |
| Day of Week Pricing Adjustments | Friday and Saturday premium. Sunday to Wednesday offers for midweek reunions. | Sells the nights that sat empty. |
| Extra Person Fee | Base price for up to 12 guests and a per-guest fee above that. | Smaller groups see a better price. Full groups pay for the extra wear. |
| Occupancy Based Adjustment | Lower rates automatically when a month trails the comp set at 60 and 30 days out. | Protects the slow months. |
| Date-Specific Overrides | Event pricing for the dates below. | Groups plan trips around them. |
2027 Branson events that move lodge prices
| Event | Dates | Who it brings |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Dollar City Spring Break | Mar 12 to 29 | Families |
| Bluegrass & BBQ | May 6 to 31 | Couples' groups, families |
| Ballparks of America tournaments | Memorial Day to August, weeklong | Youth baseball teams and their families |
| Summer Celebration and July 4th | Jun 5 to Aug 1 | Peak family season |
| Southern Gospel Picnic | Aug 26 to Sep 6 | Church groups |
| Harvest Festival | Sep 10 to Oct 31 | Fall family trips |
| An Old Time Christmas | Early November to early January | Holiday groups, reunions |
Revenue forecast for 2027 and 2028
The forecast is nights the lodge can sell times what each night earns, set season by season. Every season except December, where the lodge already outearns it, stays below what Comparable A earns today.
Show the dataHide the data
| Step | Change or total |
|---|---|
| Last 12 months | $90.9K |
| Summer rates +11% | +$5.5K |
| 12 more summer nights | +$12.6K |
| Spring and fall whole-house | +$12.9K |
| Dec and Jan-Feb renovation | -$0.7K |
| Year 1 2027 | $121.2K |
| Theater room | +$14.0K |
| Reviews and repeat guests | +$13.7K |
| Year 2 2028 | $148.9K |
| Season | Last 12 months | 2027 base | 2028 plan | Comparable A, same months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Summer, Jun to Aug | 54 nights · $51.2K | 66 × $1,050 = $69.3K | 70 × $1,180 = $82.6K | $86.7K |
| Fall, Sep to Nov | 33 nights · $15.6K | 36 × $600 = $21.6K | 40 × $630 = $25.2K | $28.7K |
| December | 18 nights · $12.9K | 20 × $650 = $13.0K | 21 × $690 = $14.5K | $10.5K |
| Jan and Feb | 5 nights · $2.4K | 4 × $400 = $1.6K (renovation) | 12 × $440 = $5.3K | $9.1K |
| Spring, Mar to May | 30 nights · $8.8K | 32 × $490 = $15.7K | 38 × $560 = $21.3K | $27.8K |
| Total | 140 nights · $90.9K | 158 nights · $121.2K | 181 nights · $148.9K | $162.8K |
Where the per-night numbers come from. 2027 summer is the lodge's 2026 summer rate (about $949) plus 11%, still under Comparable A's implied rate of about $1,157 and well under the neighbors' $1,684 July asking price. Spring and fall move from small-group pricing to whole-house rates. 2028 adds the theater room (about $14K at AirDNA's revenue effect) and the occupancy that comes with 25+ reviews.
| Case | 2027 or 2028 revenue | What it assumes |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 conservative | $99K | Listings live in late January and reviews come slowly. |
| 2027 base | $121K | The forecast above. |
| 2027 stretch | $140K | The four conditions in the next section. |
| 2028 plan | $149K | Theater room, 25+ reviews and repeat groups. |
What lifts what the owner keeps. Cleaning ran about 15% of revenue in 2025 because of short small-group stays, while Comparable A runs at about 9%. Each point saved is about $1.2K a year at the base case. Card fees on a direct booking site are about 3% against Airbnb's 15.5%, so moving 20% of revenue from Airbnb to direct keeps about $3K more.
Can the lodge reach $140K in 2027?
Possible, but not our base case. Getting from $121K to $140K takes about $19K more from four parts of the year, and each one depends on numbers we can check by mid-February.
| Part of the year | Base | Stretch | What it takes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Summer, Jun to Aug | $69.3K | $78.0K | 74 nights instead of 66 at Comparable B's price band, with about 42% of summer revenue booked by Jan 15. |
| Spring, Mar to May | $15.7K | $20.5K | Whole-house groups only. Spring Break and Bluegrass & BBQ priced as events. |
| Fall, Sep to Nov | $21.6K | $25.2K | Harvest Festival weekends and fall tournaments at full rates. |
| Jan and Feb | $1.6K | $3.7K | Theater room build done in three weeks of January, not eight. |
| December | $13.0K | $13.0K | Already at the neighbors' level. |
| Total | $121K | $140K | 85% of what Comparable A grossed in the last 12 months. |
Working for the lodge
- At the house and nearby: The ceiling is proven nearby: Comparable A grossed $164.8K in the last 12 months, and Comparable B reportedly makes $140K to $150K. Summer 2027 is still open: seven-bedroom lodges here have about 15% of it booked, and about 90% of the lodge's summer 2026 revenue came in after December 15. There's room on price: the lodge sits 7% to 24% under its neighbors, and strong guest ratings show guests like the house. Vrbo pays more for groups here: about $697 a night in 2026 against $515 on Airbnb.
- In the wider market: Branson demand is growing: tourism tax hit a record $19.7M in 2025, up 10.1%. Silver Dollar City adds a reason to come: Miner's Mountain Express, a new family coaster, opens in spring 2027 as part of a $500M, 10-year plan. Large homes lead: Airbnb says homes with four or more bedrooms grew fastest in Q2 2026 and calls group travel one of its best uses. Cheaper drives: the EIA expects gasoline to average $3.56 in 2027, down from $3.91 in 2026.
Working against the lodge
- At the house and nearby: Zero reviews at launch: the lodge's existing reviews stay with the old listings, and on AirDNA lodges with fewer than 15 reviews average $63.6K. A big jump: $140K is about 40% above the lodge's best 12 months on record (about $100K). Upgrade timing: the theater room needs approvals and a contractor, and if it slips past May, summer 2027 goes without it. The switch: some existing bookings may not move to the new listings.
- In the wider market: Cautious travelers: Deloitte found summer 2026 travel intent at a six-year low as costs rose. A softer 2026 at the lake: the Table Rock Lake Chamber reports local tax revenue down about 3% this year and shorter stays. Rentals lag hotels: Branson's Q1 2026 tax from short-term rentals was flat (+0.1%) while hotels rose 11%. Higher platform fees: Airbnb takes about 15.5% from software-connected hosts, and Vrbo moved to 12% on October 29, 2026. New group rooms: Silver Dollar City's 262-room resort opens in 2027.
Our recommendation. Budget 2027 on $121K and plan cash to carry the first year on that track. We run the house to the $140K track and report against it monthly. If summer bookings reach $33K by January 15 and $47K by February 15, $140K is in play. If not, the owner knows in February, and 2028 at $149K stays the plan.
How should a lodge launch on new listings? The first 10 weeks
The first ten weeks decide most of the first year, because summer groups book from mid-December to March. For a lodge taking over in late fall, these weeks run from mid-November to mid-January.
| Week | What we do | What the owner does | Done when |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Draft the Airbnb, Vrbo and direct-site listings. Set up OwnerRez and PriceLabs in the owner's name, load the 14-lodge comp set and price every night through the next December. | Gather the vendor list, maintenance records, HOA rules, permit status and any existing photos you have the rights to use. | Listings drafted. Next year's calendar priced. |
| Week 2 | Line up a lead cleaner and a backup, a handyman, hot tub and pool service. Write the house manual, guidebook, check-in steps and message templates. | Open Airbnb and Vrbo accounts and the payment account for direct bookings. Approve house rules, the cleaning fee and the smart lock. | Vendors confirmed in writing. |
| Week 3 (handover week) | Confirm in writing which existing bookings move to the new listings. Build the photo shot list and book the photographer. | Short-term rental insurance, permit and lodging tax registration. | Insurance in place. Permit filed. |
| Week 4 | Shoot 90+ photos. Publish on Airbnb, Vrbo and the direct site with Instant Book on and next summer's far-out prices live. Host the first stays. | Walk the house with the cleaner once. Sign off the listings. | Live on all three channels. |
| Weeks 5 to 7 | Answer every inquiry inside 10 minutes. Review prices twice a week. Christmas and New Year groups. Review follow-up after every checkout. Vrbo listing quality checklist. | Nothing routine. Approve any spend over the agreed limit. | First reviews in. Summer pace tracked weekly. |
| Weeks 8 and 9 | Theater room build once approvals are in, with those dates blocked. Summer selling push to past groups we are allowed to contact and to ballpark teams. | Join a 30-minute pace review. | Summer booked: $29K base, $33K stretch. |
What we report
| Every Monday | Every month | At each checkpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Bookings and revenue on the books for the next 12 months against the base and stretch tracks, plus any price changes we made. | Revenue, occupancy and nightly rate against Comparable A and the 14 nearby lodges, plus Airbnb's conversion numbers for the lodge. | January 15, February 15 and April 1: whether 2027 is on the base or stretch track and what we change if it is behind. |
2027 month by month
Monthly revenue targets for both tracks, what we focus on and the checkpoint that tells the owner whether the year is on plan.
2027 revenue for the year to date by month
Show the dataHide the data
| Month | Base case | Stretch case |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | $0.9K | $2.0K |
| Feb | $1.6K | $3.7K |
| Mar | $6.0K | $9.4K |
| Apr | $11.3K | $16.3K |
| May | $17.3K | $24.2K |
| Jun | $45.3K | $55.6K |
| Jul | $74.4K | $88.3K |
| Aug | $86.6K | $102.2K |
| Sep | $91.8K | $108.3K |
| Oct | $99.4K | $117.2K |
| Nov | $108.2K | $127.4K |
| Dec | $121.2K | $140.4K |
Owner's target: $140K
| Month | Base | Stretch | What we focus on | Checkpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | $0.9K | $2.0K | Theater room build, summer selling to groups | Summer on the books: $29K / $33K by Jan 15 |
| Feb | $0.7K | $1.7K | Finish the work, sell Spring Break and summer | Summer: $42K / $47K by Feb 15. 5 reviews by Mar 1 |
| Mar | $4.4K | $5.7K | Silver Dollar City Spring Break (Mar 12 to 29). Reshoot with the theater room | New photos and title live by Mar 31 |
| Apr | $5.3K | $6.9K | Bluegrass & BBQ prices, 2-night shoulder stays | Summer: $50K / $57K by Apr 1. 10 reviews |
| May | $6.0K | $7.9K | Bluegrass & BBQ, Memorial Day, ballpark season opens | Every June night priced and minimums set |
| Jun | $28.0K | $31.4K | Daily price checks, gap filling, back-to-back turnovers | 15 reviews by Jun 30 |
| Jul | $29.1K | $32.7K | July 4 groups, vendor coordination, hot tub and pool checks | Mid-year review against Comparable A |
| Aug | $12.2K | $13.9K | Late-summer offers with booking value floors, Gospel Picnic | Summer total: $69.3K / $78.0K |
| Sep | $5.2K | $6.1K | Harvest Festival, open summer 2028 bookings | Summer 2028 live with far-out prices |
| Oct | $7.6K | $8.9K | Harvest Festival weekends, fall breaks, fall tournaments | 20 reviews |
| Nov | $8.8K | $10.2K | An Old Time Christmas, Thanksgiving groups, direct offer to past guests | 2028 pricing set |
| Dec | $13.0K | $13.0K | Christmas and New Year groups, annual review | 25+ reviews. Year against plan |
| 2027 | $121K | $140K | 158 nights base, 183 nights stretch |
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Methodology and data sources
| Input | What we used |
|---|---|
| Lodge history | The lodge's booking export for the 18 months to August 2026. Revenue is rent, cleaning and guest fees before tax, counted by night stayed. |
| Comparable A | Its owner's books for 2024, 2025 and 2026 to date (gross income). It may include taxes. |
| Other nearby comparables | Revenue ranges for Comparables B, D and E as they were reported to the owner. We have not seen their books. |
| Airbnb market scan | November 2026: 532 lodges with 5+ bedrooms around Branson and Table Rock Lake, of which 389 have 6 to 10 bedrooms. For each we read the amenities, reviews, rating, photo count and 12-month availability calendar, and we searched six Thursday-to-Sunday windows (Dec 10 to 13, 2026; Jan 14 to 17, Apr 15 to 18, Jun 17 to 20, Jul 8 to 11 and Oct 14 to 17, 2027) for 990 priced stays. |
| AirDNA | Read in November 2026: 41 seven-bedroom listings in the local AirDNA submarket (last 12 months, November 2025 to October 2026), five years of monthly submarket data and 12-month forward calendars. |
| Pricing model | Log of price per night against bedrooms, reviews, rating, photos, Superhost status, area, season, stay length and each amenity. R² 0.78 on 990 stays. |
| AirDNA amenity model | Log of booked nightly rate, occupancy and log of revenue (last 12 months) for 495 lodges with 6 to 10 bedrooms and at least 120 active nights in AirDNA's Ozark Mountains market, against bedrooms, baths, reviews, rating, area, Vrbo listing and each amenity. Sauna and theater flags come from each lodge's Airbnb amenities, description and title. |
| Booking model | Share of nights already taken (next 90 days, December 2026 and summer 2027) against the same features, across 359 to 389 lodges. |
| Revenue model | Nights times revenue per night for each season, built from the lodge's own rates and checked against Comparable A's results. Stretch case splits follow Comparable A's last 12 months. |
| Privacy | Dollar figures for the lodge, its neighbors and its comparables are scaled by one common factor, and identifying details are changed. Market-wide AirDNA statistics, amenity effects and the method are unchanged. |
| Funnel benchmarks | Uplisting with IntelliHost, "Airbnb's funnel is getting better but it's still brutal math", May 14, 2026: a panel of 24,000+ active US listings over 27 months. |
| Market outlook | City of Branson tourism tax via Legends 106.3 (Jan 25, 2026) and Branson Globe (May 21, 2026). Attractions Magazine (Sep 17, 2026) and Silver Dollar City press release (Mar 13, 2026). Airbnb Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Aug 6, 2026). EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Oct 6, 2026). Deloitte summer travel survey (May 19, 2026). KY3 on Table Rock Lake tourism (Sep 17, 2026). Rental Scale-Up on Vrbo's 12% commission (Sep 30, 2026). |
| Events and tools | Silver Dollar City 2027 festival calendar, Ballparks of America tournament pages and PriceLabs help documentation. |
Limits worth knowing
- Calendars don't separate bookings from owner blocks, so occupancy figures are close estimates.
- Search prices are asking prices. We translate them into what the lodge earns using its own history.
- Amenity effects are what the market pays on average. That's why we count half in the plan.
- This is a planning estimate, not a guarantee or tax advice.
Frequently asked questions
AirDNA's average for seven-bedroom listings in one Table Rock Lake submarket was $96.9K for November 2025 to October 2026, with a median of $77.1K and a top-five average of $122.5K. Well-run lodges earn more: one comparable lodge nearby grossed about $165K on its owner's books. Our plan for this lodge forecasts $121K in 2027 and $149K in 2028.
Use it as a cross-check, not a ceiling. AirDNA estimates bookings from public calendars, so it misses direct bookings and can't always tell a booked Vrbo night from a blocked one. It read all four nearby comparables we could check below their owners' figures, one of them by about two-thirds.
Yes. It was the strongest amenity in both of our models: +10.1% on asking price in our Airbnb scan and +16.0% on booked rate and +22.5% on revenue in AirDNA's data. 72% of large lodges in the market already have one, so a lodge without one starts behind.
In this market, yes. Both models put the lift at about 10%. For this lodge that's about $14K a year, so a $15K build pays for itself in about a year.
Not clearly. Saunas are listed at about 9.7% higher prices, but AirDNA's booked rates show no statistically clear premium. Add one only if it's cheap.
Early. For this lodge, more than half of whole-house revenue was booked more than 90 days out, with a median lead time of about two months. Summer 2025 was about 70% booked by mid-December. That's why the first ten weeks of a launch matter so much.
Use both. In 2026 this lodge's whole-house stays averaged about $697 a night on Vrbo, $515 on Airbnb and $928 on direct bookings. Treat Vrbo as a lead channel for groups and send repeat groups to book direct.
We recommend 3 nights in peak and 2 in shoulder, with a minimum booking value (for example $2,000 in peak) so short stays still pay for the turnover.
One flat monthly fee per listing: $79 plus 30 cents for every dollar the 12-month average nightly rate is above $150, plus $12 for weekly revenue management, with a $200 monthly minimum. Owners pay their cleaners, vendors and software directly. See the pricing page for a quote.